PAGASA forecasts up to 4 storms in PAR in July

There are two to four tropical cyclones expected to develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in July, according to PAGASA.

Based on PAGASA's climate outlook for July to December 2026, the expected storms per month are as follows:

July: 2 to 4
August: 2 to 4
Sapetembe: 2 or 3
October: 1 or 2
November: 1 or 2
December: 1 or 2

Due to the expected El Niño from late 2026 to early 2027, fewer tropical cyclones are expected during this period, but some may still reach typhoon or super typhoon intensity.

PAGASA said from July to September, most parts of the country are likely to experience near-normal to above-normal rainfall conditions except in parts of Visayas and Mindanao, where below normal rainfall is likely.

Heavy rainfall events over the western side of Luzon and Visayas associated with the enhanced Southwest Monsoon or Habagat are expected to continue until September, with these conditions persisting since June.

In October, below-normal rainfall conditions are expected over Luzon and most of Visayas, while it is near normal over central Visayas and Mindanao.

From November to December, way-below-normal rainfall conditions are expected across most parts of Luzon, while Visayas and Mindanao are likely to experience below normal rainfall.

PAGASA earlier announced that El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific.

"In May 2026, the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly (rSSTA) reached the +0.5°C threshold. Additionally, most climate models suggest there is over an 80% probability that this will develop into a full-blown El Niño event, which is likely to persist until early 2027," the state weather bureau said.

In June, PAGASA annouced the onset of the rainy season after it observed frequent rains due to the Southwest Monsoon, or Habagat. —VAL, GMA News